Cow-Calf Corner | November 3, 2025
What’s Next for Cattle and Beef Markets?
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Cattle futures and cash markets were pummeled by a barrage of politics the past two weeks. Negative market reactions piled up under a slew of political statements and proposals along with rumors about additional political actions that left market traders and producers running for the sidelines. Feeder cattle dropped $200-$300/head in value last week in Oklahoma auctions.
It’s important to remember that cattle market fundamentals have not changed…it’s the same supply and demand conditions that existed three weeks ago.
Political talk has included more beef imports from Argentina…largely irrelevant as an import source and with no expected impacts on U.S. beef prices as well as a possible reduction in Brazil tariffs…which could impact processing beef supplies slightly. Lack of data due to the government shutdown makes it hard to say how much the August tariffs on Brazil decreased beef imports and therefore how much removing/reducing them might increase beef imports. In any event it would be a return to market conditions that existed through July, including record high lean trimmings prices. Beef imports from Argentina and Brazil will have no impact on steak prices in the U.S.
USDA has offered a wide range of proposals to “Fortify the American Beef Industry”, which included a laundry list of things including regulatory changes, access to federal grazing lands, and packing infrastructure. None of these will change the supply and demand conditions of cattle and beef production – or beef prices – in the short run nor change the multi-year timeline for the industry to rebuild. Will the Mexican border reopen for cattle imports...who knows? Even if it does, it will not change feeder cattle supplies much for several months.
Also, there is the rumor of a thaw in the trade war with China. It’s not clear if this would include reopening the Chinese market to U.S. beef, which has been devastated recently. Record high cattle and beef prices have largely masked the negative impacts of the loss of beef export markets to China. The latest available trade data for July showed that China accounted for 1.2 percent of beef exports compared to one year ago when beef exports to China represented 15.3 percent of monthly exports. If beef exports to China resume it will add additional support to U.S. cattle and beef prices.
What else…I’m probably forgetting something…
All the political talk could ultimately have either positive or negative impacts on cattle and beef markets; it’s impossible to say what the net effect might be. The impacts will be marginal and do not change the underlying market fundamentals. With less agitation, cattle markets will bounce back quickly, and markets will guide production decisions. The trajectory and price expectations for the next two - four years have not changed.
What is clear is that uncertainty and volatility from political comments and rhetoric have a very real negative impact on producers and consumers. The federal government’s demonstrated willingness to meddle in cattle and beef markets and interfere with markets doing what they do so well likely means that the industry will continue to deal with debilitating uncertainty and volatility. The most likely outcome is that it will keep cattle producers and lenders cautious and further delay the lengthy process of herd rebuilding, which already looks to extend nearly to the end of the decade.
Selecting Replacement Heifers: Building a Productive Cowherd for the Future
Parker A. Henley and Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Specialists
As we all consider current cow herd dynamics and market trends, producers are evaluating options to rebuild or expand, making this a timely moment to revisit selection priorities. Thoughtful replacement heifer selection is essential to shaping the future of a cowherd. Heifers that fit the production environment, breed early, calve unassisted, and remain productive for years contribute significantly to long-term profitability. This article outlines key traits and tools to consider when making those selections.
Growth Rate to Achieve Early Puberty and Reproductive Readiness
Heifers that reach puberty early are more likely to conceive during their first breeding season and calve by 24 months of age. Early puberty is moderately to highly heritable and positively correlated with lifetime reproductive success. To support this, heifers should demonstrate consistent growth and reach target weights that promote reproductive readiness. Ideally, they should weigh approximately 65% of their projected mature weight at the start of the breeding season (typically between 13 and 15 months of age). For example, a heifer expected to mature at 1,400 pounds should weigh around 910 pounds at breeding. Reproductive tract scoring, conducted 4 to 6 weeks prior to the breeding season, is a valuable tool for assessing reproductive maturity. Selecting heifers that exhibit early reproductive development lays the foundation for a more fertile, efficient, and productive cowherd.
Fertility and Longevity
Although fertility has low heritability, it is one of the most economically important traits in beef production. Aim for a 60% first-service pregnancy rate and 90% pregnancy rate within a 60-day breeding season. Early pregnancy diagnosis allows for timely culling of open heifers, which can be marketed as yearlings. Over time, this strategy enhances herd fertility and longevity, as early-calving heifers tend to remain in the herd longer and wean more pounds of calf over their lifetime. Maintaining a buffer of 5–10% more heifers than needed allows producers to cull sub-fertile individuals without compromising replacement numbers.
Milking Ability and Mammary Development
Optimal milk production is closely tied to forage availability and overall nutritional management. While milking ability is low in heritability, selecting sires with appropriate Milk EPDs can help target the right level of production. Avoid selecting heifers that were overly fat at weaning, as excessive fat can impair mammary development and future milk yield. When possible, evaluate the udder and teat structure of the dam to anticipate future performance.
Body Type, Disposition, and Structural Soundness
Phenotypic evaluation remains a cornerstone of replacement heifer selection. Avoid extremes in size, as both overly large and small heifers may present challenges in feed efficiency, calving ease, and longevity. Body type and fleshing ability are also important indicators of future productivity. Heifers with adequate rib shape, depth of body, and muscling tend to maintain body condition more effectively, especially under variable nutritional conditions. Disposition is moderately to highly heritable and plays a significant role in herd management. Calm, manageable heifers improve safety, reduce stress during handling, and often show improved reproductive performance. Culling heifers with poor temperament enhances the working environment and herd efficiency. Structural soundness, particularly in feet, legs, and eyes, is vital for long-term productivity. Heifers should be evaluated for mobility, hoof integrity, and leg structure to ensure they can thrive in various terrain and withstand the physical demands of breeding, calving, and raising a calf.
Calving Ease and Pelvic Measurements
Pelvic area (PA) measurements can help predict calving ease. A general rule of thumb is dividing PA by 2.1 to estimate the maximum calf weight a heifer can deliver unassisted. For example, a PA of 175 cm² suggests a heifer can calve an 83 lb calf. Additionally, consider Calving Ease Maternal (CEM) EPDs when selecting sires for virgin heifers. Bulls with higher CEM values produce daughters more likely to calve unassisted. Selecting bulls with low Birth Weight (BW) and high Calving Ease Direct EPDs is also critical.
Genomics in Heifer Selection
Advancements in DNA testing have added a powerful layer to heifer selection. Genomic-enhanced EPDs combine pedigree, performance, and DNA data to improve prediction accuracy, especially for traits like fertility, longevity, and maternal ability. Genomic tools are especially useful in commercial herds where data may be limited. Several companies offer affordable DNA testing services that help rank heifers based on genetic potential. These tests provide deep insight at a relatively low cost, helping producers increase confidence in selection decisions, identify heifers with superior genetics, and avoid investing in underperforming animals. Incorporating genomics into your selection strategy supports long-term herd productivity and profitability.
Final Thoughts
Selecting the oldest heifers, those born early in the calving season, remains a reliable strategy for identifying replacements with strong maternal backgrounds. Heifers should reach 65% of their mature weight by breeding and be culled if open after the first season. Investing in sound selection practices, including genomic tools, sets the stage for a more productive and profitable cowherd.
References
Calf Weaning To-Do List
Dana Zook, Oklahoma State University NW Area Extension Livestock Specialist
Processing and weaning plans are underway for spring calving herds. I don’t have to tell you that the value of these calves are very high. Producers would benefit from some plans to minimize stress and maintain health. Research has proven that low stress cattle handling and proper vaccination helps calves perform as stockers and in the feedyard. Read on for some insight on best management during weaning.
Vaccinations & Management
The Oklahoma Quality Beef Network (OQBN) provides a research proven guide for management and vaccination of newly weaned calves. The OQBN program requires that cattle are raised from the ranch of origin, weaned a minimum of 45 days, and are bunk trained. Bull calves must be castrated, and all calves must be dehorned. All calves should be healed from these procedures and appear in good health on sale day.
The OQBN vaccination guide for this program include two rounds of a Clostridial vaccine (Blackleg), two rounds of a 5-way Respiratory vaccine, and 1 round of a Mannheimia haemolytica vaccine (Shipping Fever). All vaccines should be given according to label instructions and be complete three weeks prior to sale.
In addition to vaccination, the weaning environment makes a big difference in the health status of calves. Initially putting calves in a familiar pen or trap with some shade will help smooth the weaning transition. With current temperatures above normal, ensure that newly weaned calves are not put into a hot, dusty dry lot. Consider the guide above but I encourage producers to work with a veterinarian to develop a weaning plan targeted to your operation. If you don’t have a vet, there is no better time than the present!
Calf Nutrition Should Not be an After-Thought
Weaning nutrition is one of the most important times to pay attention to detail. Producers should be prepared to provide calves with familiar feeds that are palatable and provide a greater concentration of nutrition to compensate for low intake. Some producers may choose to feed a small amount of range cubes on good grass. Other producers may elect to use a complete ration. Despite the choice, feeds and forages for newly weaned calves should be highly palatable. In a ration high energy/high fiber-based commodities such alfalfa, soybean hulls, and wheat midds are appropriate. Whole corn is also a good partner with these feeds and is often locally available. Start calves on a palatable ration at 1% of body weight and increase slowly over several weeks.
Retaining Calves? Consider Insurance
Recently a producer told me he just can’t bear to sell his calves at 600 pounds; he would rather put some gain on them and sell in the Spring. I totally understand this sentiment. There are a variety of situations that keep producers from selling early (taxes, wheat pasture, forage stocks). If you have the same feeling as the producer above, I encourage you to consider Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) to insure calves at a value that retains your profit. Also, death loss is a reality. In this market, the loss of one calf at a value of $2000 is a real hit to the budget. In reality, it seems like the prices of calves will stay high, but markets are a funny thing and can fluctuate with the news cycle. It would be unfortunate to be caught in a dip in the market and miss out on some immense profit.
With that, Happy Fall! May all your calf-working be peaceful, your vaccinations be well placed and luck be in your favor! If you have any questions about vaccinations, nutrition, or LRP, please contact your local county OSU Extension office – we are happy to help you!
Winter Supplementation and Body Condition Change Affect Cow Performance and Long-Term Calf Outcomes in Spring-Calving Herds
Paul Beck, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Nutrition Specialist
Nutritional management of beef cows during the winter months has lasting impacts on reproductive performance of the cow, calf health, and overall herd productivity in spring-calving herds. Recent research evaluating minimal and flexible supplementation strategies using distillers grains–based protein supplements for May-calving cows grazing native range compared three programs: a low daily rate (0.5 lb/cow/day), a standard rate (1.0 lb/cow/day), and a flexible strategy where cows were supplemented only during periods of environmental stress such as snow cover or cold rain. Supplementation began in January and ended about 30 days before calving.
Although cows receiving the lower supplementation rate were lighter at calving and tended to remain lighter at breeding, there were no differences among treatments in body condition score, pregnancy rate, calf birth weight, weaning weight, or subsequent feedlot performance and carcass characteristics. These results indicate that flexible supplementation during stressful weather can maintain productivity while reducing feed costs—a valuable option when winter feed prices are high.
Maintaining adequate cow body condition during late gestation, however, remains critical for both cow and calf success. Loss of body condition late in pregnancy can reduce colostrum quality and immunoglobulin content, weakening calf immunity and increasing disease susceptibility. Severe nutritional restriction in late gestation also decreases birth weight, especially in young cows, and can compromise the calf’s immune development. Additionally, nutrient restriction during pregnancy has been shown to result in calves with lower weaning weights, reduced post-weaning and finishing performance, lighter carcasses, and less marbling—clear evidence that maternal nutrition influences lifetime growth and carcass quality.
This phenomenon, known as fetal programming, describes how poor nutrition, heat stress, or other challenges during gestation can permanently affect offspring performance and reproduction. Maternal undernutrition can delay puberty and lower fertility in replacement heifers while reducing feedlot performance and carcass quality in steers.
Collectively, these studies underscore the importance of managing cow nutrition strategically through the winter. Flexible supplementation programs can reduce costs without sacrificing reproductive success, but cows must maintain moderate body condition to support calf health, feedlot efficiency, and long-term productivity. Well-planned winter nutrition programs enhance economic efficiency, animal resilience, and the sustainability of beef production systems in variable environments.
Take-Home Message
Flexible supplementation programs that target environmental stress periods can help reduce winter feed costs without compromising cow performance. However, maintaining adequate body condition through late gestation is essential to ensure optimal calf immunity, fertility, growth, and carcass quality. Investing in balanced winter nutrition not only supports this year’s calf crop—it builds long-term productivity, fertility, and resilience across the cowherd.
Dr. Dave Lalman, OSU Extension beef cattle specialist, explains how to determine the exact amount of supplementation your herd needs — no more, no less, on SunUpTV from November 1, 2025.