Cow-Calf Corner | November 24, 2025
Reduced Packing Capacity and Tariff Roulette Adds to Cattle Market Uncertainty
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Industry fears about the impact of packer losses and low cattle numbers were realized in late November with the announcement from Tyson that the Lexington, Nebraska packing plant would close and the Amarillo, Texas plant would decrease from two shifts to one shift in the coming months. This will reduce industry slaughter capacity by roughly 7,000 to 8,000 head per day. The exact impact will depend on forthcoming details, especially how Tyson will manage a one-shift plant. Depending on the details, the reduction represents roughly 7.5 – 9.0 percent of total industry slaughter capacity.
Monday – Friday daily fed slaughter thus far in 2025 has averaged 90,529 head per day, down 3.6 percent from the recent peak (93,931 head per day) in 2022. However, Saturday slaughter has averaged 4,878 head this year, just 13.1 percent of the 37,137 head per day average in 2022. For the first 45 weeks of the year, total weekly fed slaughter has averaged 457,524 head compared to 506,793 head per week in 2022, a decrease of 9.7 percent. The Tyson planned reduction in packing capacity may be nearly (but not quite) enough to balance the decrease in cattle slaughter since the peak in 2022. However, fed slaughter is expected to continue decreasing in 2026 and 2027. Excess packing capacity will continue to be an issue for beef packers for the foreseeable future.
In other news last week, the latest spins of the big tariff roulette wheel included lifting the 10 percent tariffs imposed in April on countries from which the U.S. imports beef. Major beef import sources are Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico and Uruguay, along with minor sources including Nicaragua and Argentina. A few days later, the additional 40 percent tariff imposed on Brazil in August was removed. Brazil, who filled the “Other Country” tariff rate quota in January, will still face the 26.4 percent over-quota tariff rate. For the first seven months of the year, Brazil was the largest source of U.S. beef imports.
Since the beginning of the year, Brazil has gone from a zero within-quota tariff (filled by January 17) to a 26.4 percent over-quota tariff later in January, to which an additional 10 percent tariff was added in April (36.4 percent total), to which an additional tariff of 40 percent was added in August (76.4 percent total), back to 66.4 percent total after removal of 10 percent tariffs in November, followed a few days later by removal of the 40 percent tariff and, thus, back to the 26.4 over quota tariff until the end of the year (maybe) when the “Other Country” quota resets for another year. If you are confused, don’t feel bad – how can any industry function in such a quagmire of changing rules?
Lack of trade data resulting from the shutdown has made it impossible to quantify the negative impact of the August tariff on beef imports from Brazil, let alone the impacts of now reverting back to the situation from early in the year. There will be impacts, likely relatively small on the ground beef market – probably more likely to simply moderate future increases rather than actually reducing ground beef prices in the U.S. Certainly there will be no relief for high steak prices, with even higher prices likely ahead as beef production continues to fall.
Analyzing Your System, Build Back Better – Replacement Heifers Series – Article 3
Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist
How do you develop breeding objectives and identify economically important traits on which to apply selection pressure in your cow-calf operation? The answer lies in understanding that your cattle (and their underlying genotype) are just one component of a much larger system. Your production system is a group interdependent components. Animal-related systems vary from large, extremely complex systems such as the beef industry as a whole, to smaller (but still complex) systems like an individual farm or ranch.
To analyze your own unique cow-calf production system, consider the following:
- Your cattle – specifically their genotypes
- Your production environment
- Your fixed resources and management
- Economics
Your cow inventory and bulls used are the means to produce the calves marketed. How would you describe the genetic potential and phenotype of your cowherd, bull battery and calves produced? Is this description a good fit with the other components of your system?
Your production environment refers to all the elements involved in your cow-calf operation over which you have little influence. Examples would include altitude, soils, climate conditions like rainfall, wind and temperature, as well as the quantity and quality of your forage base. Cow-calf production takes place in an extremely wide variety of production environments. A cowherd of the correct genotype to fit their production environment will more efficiently convert grazed forage into pounds of calf raised.
Fixed resources include factors such as the amount of pasture you have for grazing, your ability to grow (or have access to) supplemental feeds, and available labor. Management involves all the practices implemented by you. Examples include vaccination protocols, supplemental feeding, how long will mature cows remain in production and (very importantly), how and when will calves be marketed. Management also involves the selection and mating decisions you make to optimize genotypes in your production system in order to create profit potential.
Economics encompasses all the financial factors unique to your operation. The cost of inputs and value of outputs. Feed, fuel, fertilizer, equipment and labor are input cost. Input expenses are significantly influenced by the cost of maintaining your breeding herd. Furthermore, interest rates on debt and the equity you have in your land and cattle are very important economic factors which often influence marketing plans.
Considering all the components of your production system and how they interact with each other should determine breeding objectives and where selection pressure should be applied. This can result in genotypes that are an environmental fit, are aligned with marketing plans and optimize the use of your resources.
Dr. Johnson discusses breeding objectives and selection pressure, helping producers
make smarter decisions that lead to stronger, more productive herds on SunUpTV from
November 22, 2025.
Youtube: What You Should Know About Selection Pressure in Replacement Heifers
Input Needed for Reproductive Technology Study
Mamie-Cate Haydon and Riley Messman, Oklahoma State University Department of Animal and Food Sciences
Cattle producers, we need your help!
Researchers with the Oklahoma State University Department of Animal and Food Sciences are
conducting a survey to assess the current reproductive practices of beef cow-calf producers. With special interest in assisted reproductive technologies (ART), such as artificial insemination and embryo transfer, this study aims to quantify and analyze ART utilization as well as explore the barriers in its adoption and implementation within beef cow-calf operations.
We invite you to participate in our survey questionnaire and optional follow-up interview and/or operational observation. The survey questionnaire takes approximately 10 minutes of your time to complete. Participation is completely voluntary, and responses will remail confidential. To participate, you must be 18 years or older and own or manage a beef cow-calf operation. For full completion of the 10-minute questionnaire, you’ll receive one entry into a raffle for a chance to win 2 paid registrations to NCBA CattleCon 2027 – one for you and a guest.
We believe this information is invaluable in further developing extension education programs so we may continue to adopt, enhance, and innovate industry methods, especially as our production resources are continuing to diminish.
Thank you for your considered participation, as we deeply appreciate any feedback you would be willing to provide.
To participate, please complete the consent form and take the survey questionnaire.
If you have any questions, please contact Riley Messman at riley.messman@okstate.edu. This study has received approval from the Oklahoma State University Institutional Review Board.