Potential Impacts of the Mexican Border Reopening 

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

 

Cattle markets have been nervously reacting to rumors and speculation that the Mexican border may reopen at any time to cattle imports into the U.S.  Many questions are swirling about when the border might open, how many cattle are backlogged in Mexico and how fast cattle might cross into the U.S.  Some background and recent events are helpful to sort out what to expect if the border reopens.

 

For twenty years from 2004 - 2023, U.S. imports of Mexican cattle have averaged 1.17 million head, ranging from 0.703 to 1.47 million head per year.  On average, Mexican cattle imports are equal to 3.3 percent of the U.S. calf crop.  Mexican cattle imports include steers and spayed heifers, with heifers accounting for an average of 15.6 percent of total cattle imports. 

 

Severe drought in Mexico, especially in 2023 and 2024, significantly impacted exports of cattle to the U.S.  In 2023, a total of 1.25 million head of Mexican cattle were imported, including 28.4 percent spayed heifers.  In 2024, a total of 1.25 million head of Mexican cattle were imported prior to the border closure in late November.  Given the typical seasonal pattern of imports, total Mexican cattle imports in 2024, were on pace to reach a record or near record level of 1.45 – 2.0 million head.  Total imports prior to the border closure included 37.1 percent spayed heifers, a record level of heifers in the import total.  Total steers in the import mix both years were below average levels. Drought conditions, combined with rising U.S. cattle prices, were major factors in the increase in Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. and especially for the increase in spayed heifer exports. Mexican cattle exports in 2023 and 2024 were most likely not sustainable and indicated cattle liquidation.

 

What would have happened in 2025 if the border had not been closed?  No one knows of course but the events of the previous two years likely mean that less cattle would have been available for export.  It appears that 2025 cattle exports to the U.S. would have likely totaled perhaps 0.95 – 1.0 million head, with an open border.  A total of 229,055 head did cross in the brief periods that border was open earlier in the year. 

 

The big question is how many potential cattle exports have been reabsorbed into the domestic Mexican market.  There are indications that Mexican feedlots have been placing Mexican cattle (substantially devalued relative to the U.S. market) in lieu of Central American cattle that typically backfill the Mexican cattle supply.  Improved drought conditions in Mexico do allow more flexibility for Mexican cattle producers to hold cattle.  For example, the October 12-month moving average of rainfall in Chihuahua was at the highest level since July 2023.  However, with little prospects of the border opening until recently and only rumors now, many Mexican cattle may have already been marketed back into the domestic market.  Certainly there are no prospects for spayed heifer imports into the U.S.  The limited time frame for spayed heifers to be exported combined with the uncertainty of the border (even if it is opened) makes it risky and unlikely that heifers would be scheduled for export.  There may also be more heifer retention now in northern Mexico.  On net, it seems likely that perhaps 200 to 400 thousand head of Mexican cattle may currently be available for export.

 

When the border opens it will take time for cattle exports to begin and they will likely start slowly.  Border facilities have to be restaffed, and producers have to prepare cattle and paperwork for export.  All of that plus extra inspections and protocols likely means that very few cattle would cross before the end of the year.  It will be a trickle rather than a flood, when it happens.  

 

Get the latest 2025 beef market outlook from Oklahoma State University’s Ranchers Thursday Lunchtime Series. Dr. Derrell Peel breaks down the current state of the cattle industry—including record-low beef cow numbers, tight feeder supplies, feedlot margins, carcass weights, drought recovery, and how these factors shape the market moving forward fromRancher’s Thursday Webinar Series from November 13, 2025.

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Breeding Objectives and Selection Pressure

Build Back Better Replacement Heifers Series Article 2

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist

 

A breeding objective is the general goal of a breeding program – the notion of what constitutes the best animal. Selection pressure is applied to specific traits in order to meet breeding objectives. Selection pressure is a precious commodity and should not be squandered. Especially in beef cattle breeding programs where the biological time lag from selection and mating decisions until replacement heifers become cows is lengthy, as compared to other meat animal species. Determining the correct selection criterion and breeding objectives for your cow-calf operation is critically important (especially as it pertains to generating replacement heifers) as these have long-term impact on cowherd productivity and profit potential. For example, applying all selection pressure to weaning and yearling growth with no consideration of (strongly genetically correlated) mature cow size can leave a producer tethered to an excessively sized, higher maintenance input cowherd for at least a decade. Thereby, selection pressure applied to weaning and yearling growth relative to an acceptable upper limit of mature weight or mature height may lead to a more optimum outcome with regard to the value of calves sold annually and maintenance cost of the cowherd year-around.

 

Whether it is the purchase of herd bulls, picking AI sires, or which heifers will be kept from this calf crop to develop as herd replacements, over time, 80 – 90% of genetic change is the result of sire selection. Additive genetic change is cumulative and permanent.

 

Four facts should be known about a trait before applying selection pressure to it or including it in your breeding objectives, these are:

1. Heritability of the trait
2. Economic importance of the trait
3. Genetic correlation of the trait to other economically important traits
4. Measurability of the trait 

 

The final take home point is this, determining breeding objectives and where selection pressure should be applied is unique to your operation. It should not be determined by your seedstock vendor who sells you bulls, or your neighboring cow-calf operation whose financial situation, forage base and marketing endpoint for calves may be different from your own. Now is the time to consider the unique nature of your operation and give thought to breeding goals and where selection pressure should be applied in the next bull buying season. More on that topic next week in an article addressing the analysis of your production system.      

 

Mark breaks down why replacement females are more important than ever, what producers should be evaluating early in the process, and how today’s decisions can shape herd genetics and market value for years to come on SunUpTV from November 14, 2025. 

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Selection for Improved Performance Does Not Reduce Hardiness of Beef Cattle

Paul Beck, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Nutrition Specialist

 

Genetic selection has driven improved growth, carcass weight, and milk production in beef cattle. In many livestock species, intensive selection for production traits has been shown to reduce disease resistance and weaken immune function, raising concerns that similar patterns may be emerging in the beef industry. Research across species demonstrates that when resources are biologically allocated toward production, animals may have fewer resources available to maintain a strong immune system. This is feared to potentially result in cattle that are less resilient to stress and disease.

 

At the same time, record-low national cattle inventories and strong beef demand continue to push the industry toward greater biological efficiency and longer days on feed during finishing steadily increasing finished body weights, and hot carcass weights. As the industry places greater emphasis on lean yield and meat quality, there is a growing need to better understand how genetics, nutrition, and management interact to shape animal performance and hardiness.

 

This study investigated whether sires selected for higher growth and milk expected progeny differences produce post-weaning calves with different immune competence, growth efficiency, and carcass outcomes.

 

What We Found

As expected, selection of sires for increased post-weaning growth resulted in offspring that were heavier at weaning and had higher average daily gains from weaning through harvest. High growth steers were 86 pounds heavier at harvest and had 35 pounds heavier hot carcass weights in 10 less days on feed. The high growth steers consumed more feed but feed efficiency was similar to steers from sires with lower post-weaning growth. Lower growth steers had more marbling and carcasses that graded Prime.

 

Somewhat surprisingly, we did not find any differences in immune function, but high growth steers had higher pro-inflammatory cytokines. This may be important because pro-inflammatory cytokines are chemical messengers that help activate the immune response. When levels differ between animals, it shows that some calves mount a stronger or quicker immune reaction than others. That can help us understand which animals may be more resilient during the post-weaning period. The lower growth steers had greater respiratory disease incidence during the late finishing period with greater death loss and more steers deemed to be chronically sick.

 

This research highlights the impact of genetic selection and management on performance and carcass quality. We have seen no evidence to date that increased selection for performance has a negative impact on livestock resilience to disease and marketing stresses.