Strong Cattle Markets Threatened by Uncertainty and Volatility

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

 

Cattle prices continue to generally grind higher amid a whirlwind of political activities and rhetoric that have buffeted markets at all levels.  Markets have been whipsawed with on-again, off-again political announcements that create debilitating uncertainty in equity, futures and cash markets with negative impacts on producers, consumers and the complex supply chains of agricultural and food markets. 

 

Despite that, ever tightening supply fundamentals are supporting higher cattle and beef prices.  Feeder cattle of all classes and fed cattle have set new record high prices since the beginning of the year.  Estimated feeder supplies outside of feedlots on January 1 were down 0.5 percent year over year.  The number of heifers in feedlots on January 1 was down 3.4 percent year over year with heifers making up 38.7 percent of total cattle on feed.  The January 1 inventory of beef replacement heifers was down 1.0 percent year over year and beef replacement heifers as a percent of the beef cow herd is at the lowest level since 2011 (Figure 1).  All of these indicate that no heifer retention was underway at the end of 2024. 

 

Figure 1. Beef Replacement Heifers as a % of Beef Cow Inventory, January 1.

 

Heifer retention could begin and may be starting at this time.  While there is no data to verify yet, every year some level of unplanned (impulse) breeding of heifers (not designated as replacements) occurs and this typically accelerates in the early stages of herd expansion.  These heifers are currently included in the “Other Heifer” category of inventory and are part of the estimated feeder supply.  If impulse heifer breeding increases this year, it will represent a one-for-one reduction in feeder supplies and will increase bred heifers entering the herd in 2026.  Additionally, heifer calves may be retained in 2025 for breeding in 2026 and calving in 2027.  All of this will lead to reduced feeder supplies though 2025 and beyond, further supporting feeder cattle prices.  Even if cattle producers are ready and intend to begin herd rebuilding, drought threats remain that may limit what is possible.

 

Consumers can expect to continue seeing high beef prices that may push even higher in the coming months.  Heavier carcass weights helped maintain beef production in 2024 and will continue to do so this year.  Eventually, however, reduced cattle slaughter will reduce beef production.  Beef markets will ration smaller beef supplies with even higher beef prices as long as demand remains robust. 

 

Uncertainty and volatility from external turbulence will likely continue to impact cattle markets.  However, as long as these do not result in a major macroeconomic disruption (i.e. recession), cattle markets are expected to continue strong.  The biggest threat to cattle and beef markets is the potential loss of consumer demand that would result from a significant macroeconomic meltdown.  Fasten your seatbelts, cattle markets are gaining altitude, but turbulence is expected.

---

Bull to Female Ratios

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist

 

Breeding season is approaching and bull turnout is only weeks away for herds that plan to start calving next January.  We are fortunate in Oklahoma to have a large number of outstanding registered seedstock breeders who are, and will be, marketing bulls in volume in our state. The opportunity to invest in genetics to improve the profit potential of your operation leads to several questions and requires planning.

 

The first goal of breeding season is to get cows bred early in breeding season resulting in more calves born earlier in calving season, shorter breeding/calving seasons, older calves at weaning and ultimately, more pay weight at weaning due to calf age. The typical beef calf gains about 2 lbs./day up until weaning, accordingly a calf born one heat cycle (21 days) earlier will wean off about 40 lbs. heavier. How do we get this accomplished?  By having an adequate amount of bulls to get cows serviced. The following shows a conservative expectation of the number of cows we should expect bulls to cover in a defined breeding season.

 

• 12 - 15 month old bulls = 10 – 12 females
• 15 - 18 month old bulls = 12 – 18 females
• 18 - 24 month old females = 18 – 25 females
• 24 mo. & older = 25 – 35 females
• 2 – 6 year old bulls = 25 – 35 females

 

Rule of Thumb: One female per month of age at turnout (after passing yearling Breeding Soundness Exam)

 

For example: If I have 60 heifers to breed and plan to turn out 15 month old bulls, I will need four bulls.

 

What is the typical life expectancy of a breeding bull?  Typically up to the age of 6 is “prime of life” for breeding bulls.  This isn’t to say that all bulls will break down at this age, but is more likely to happen after age six.  Often when an older bull goes bad, it isn’t discovered until after breeding season when we are doing pregnancy checks.

---

Oklahoma Quality Beef Network Sees Highest Premiums Yet During 2024

Kellie Curry Raper and Derrell Peel

Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension Livestock Marketing Specialists

 

Oklahoma Quality Beef Network (OQBN) producers in 2024 were rewarded with the highest overall average premium in program history at $22.12/cwt (Figure 1). OQBN is a third-party certified VAC-45 preconditioning program offered through Oklahoma Cooperative Extension. Producers follow an OQBN calf health management protocol to qualify for certification and eligibility to market cattle through OQBN. Extension personnel provide guidance to producers and certification to potential buyers that protocols have been followed. OQBN premiums reported here are measured as the weighted average premium for OQBN VAC-45 calves relative to non-preconditioned calves of the same sex and weight class at the same sale.

 

OQBN feeder steers earned an average of $23.36/cwt more than non-preconditioned calves. The weight range for OQBN steers was 400 to 799 pounds with nearly 40% of those in the 600-699 pound category (Table 1). Premiums ranged from $10.04/cwt to $37.56/cwt across those weights (Figure 2). OQBN steers averaged increased revenue of $150.73 per head.

 

For OQBN heifers, the average premium over non-preconditioned calves was $19.39/cwt. Heifer weights ranged from 300 to 799 pounds. Heifer premiums exhibited a tighter pattern of premiums than steers, with values ranging from $9.11 to $24.45/cwt. On average, heifers brought $106.03 per head in increased revenue compared to non-preconditioned heifers. Historically, lighter weights have tended to bring higher premiums per cwt. However, that pattern is not as evident in this year’s data. For steers, 4-weights and 7-weights brought the highest premiums per hundredweight, while for heifers there is no clear pattern.

 

Figure 1. OQBN Premium over Calves Marketed with No Preconditioning ($/cwt)^* All calves, 2011-2024.

 

^*Premium is weighted average premium for preconditioned calves relative to non-preconditioned calves at the same sale. Source: K.C. Raper and D.S. Peel, Historical OQBN data collection.

 

 

Figure 2. 2024 OQBN Premiums by Weight Class and Sex

 

The 2024 fall marketing season for OQBN included 7 fall sales across 6 Oklahoma livestock markets with total OQBN enrollment of 1,452 head. This year’s data includes 7,900 head marketed in 1,014 lots, including 94 OQBN lots. As expected, sales with more OQBN calves or other preconditioned calves tended to have higher premiums for those calves, as those sales usually attract a larger number of buyers to compete for preconditioned calves.

 

Certified preconditioning programs are one marketing strategy for cow-calf producers in marketing their calves. Past research at OSU indicates that 80% of the time, certified preconditioning nets positive returns. Every producer’s situation is different. Different resources. Different constraints. Different opportunities. We encourage you to assess your situation and implement recommended calf health management practices to the fullest extent possible. These practices can not only enhance your bottom line, but they also benefit the beef supply chain as a whole – which is why many buyers are willing to pay more for calves with these management attributes. Calves are healthier, grow better, and ultimately result in higher quality beef for consumers. OQBN has no minimum requirement on number of head enrolled, so the program is accessible to all producers, large and small. More information about the OQBN protocol, past market premiums, upcoming marketing opportunities, program enrollment and Extension educator contact information can be found at the Oklahoma Quality Beef Network website.

---

Foot And Mouth Disease

Barry Whitworth, DVM, OSU Cooperative Extension State Livestock Extension Veterinarian

 

The World Organization for Animal Health confirmed an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in cattle in Hungary on March 6, 2025. The last reported case of FMD in Hungary occurred on December 31,1973. This is following a previous reported case of FMD in Germany on January 10, 2025. Hungary has not seen a case of FMD in fifty years and Germany has not had a case in forty years. The United States (US) has not experienced a case of FMD since 1929, but the Hungary and Germany experiences remind all livestock producers in the US that FMD is still a threat to livestock operations.

 

FMD is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. Important livestock species, that can be infected with the virus, are cattle, pigs, sheep, and goats. The disease is not a public health threat. Unfortunately, the disease can spread easily and cause severe economic hardship.

FMD is caused by the Foot and Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) in the Picornaviridae family. The seven known serotypes of the virus are O, A, C, SAT 1, SAT 2, SAT 3, and Asia 1. Serotype O is the most common. The serotypes have multiple subtypes. The large number of serotypes makes vaccine development difficult since immunity to one serotype does not protect against others.

 

FMDV can be found in all fluids excreted from infected animals. This includes saliva, urine, feces, fluid from vesicles, semen, amniotic fluid, and aborted fetuses. Expired air from infected animals can transmit the virus in the right environment. The virus can enter the body through inhalation, ingestion, and direct contact with infected animals. The virus can also be spread by contaminated objects and feed.

 

Clinical signs of the disease can vary between species. The most common clinical sign are blisters or vesicles on the tongue, gums, teats, and the interdigital space of the hooves. Other typical symptoms found are fever, loss of appetite, excessive drooling or salivation, lameness, and decreased milk production in dairy animals. In severe cases, particularly in young animals, FMD can cause heart inflammation, leading to sudden death. Most adult animals recover in two to three weeks. Although, some animals never return to full production or have permanent issues such as hoof malformation, chronic lameness, chronic mastitis, and weight loss.

 

FMD is a difficult disease to control. Most animals in the US are very susceptible to FMD. If an outbreak were to occur in the US, the disease could spread rapidly, unless detected early and eliminated. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has worked hard at keeping the disease out of the US. Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service (APHIS) continues to work with the Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection at screening cargo at the border. The US restricts importation of animals and animal products from areas affected by FMD. APHIS deploys veterinarians worldwide to assist other countries in their efforts to control and eradicate the disease.

 

If a case of FMD occurs in the US, livestock producers will probably be the first to see it. For this reason, livestock producers should be familiar with the clinical signs of the disease. Any suspicious signs should be reported to their veterinarian. Livestock producers should maintain a good biosecurity plan. A key part of that plan should be to control who may enter their livestock operation. It is especially important to limit those who have traveled outside the US.

 

FMD is a constant threat to the US livestock industry. An outbreak would have significant economic consequences. US cattle producers should remain vigilant at keeping this disease out of the US. For more information about FMD, cattle producers may want to visit the Secure Beef Supply website.