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Cattle and Beef Markets: 2024 in Review

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

 

Looking back, 2024 was mostly a continuation of the story that has been developing since 2022.  Tight supplies of cattle pushed cattle and beef prices higher to new record levels during the year. However, in some ways, 2024 was kind of a pause in the developing dynamics of the industry with more of a sideways move than noticeable progress to change the market situation.

 

Despite an expected 2024 calf crop down over one percent year over year and the sixth consecutive decrease in the total calf crop, feedlots were able to hold average monthly inventories fractionally higher compared to the year before.  Total feedlot marketings in the past 12 months were down just 0.3 percent from the previous 12 months.  Total feedlot placements were down 1.7 percent in the past year compared to the previous 12 months.  Feedlots were able to hold inventories steady mostly due to continued heifer feeding in 2024.  As of October 1, heifers still represented 39.7 percent of feedlot inventories, near the upper end of historical levels and well above levels that would indicate heifer retention.  Additionally, feedlots held inventory levels by extending days on feed and slowing down the turnover rate in feedlots.  Kansas feedlot data shows that days on feed for steers increased by 3.2 percent in the first ten months of 2024, adding 6 days to average on-feed time over the same period a year earlier.

 

Although final data for the year are still coming, it appears that total beef production in 2024 was down just 0.6 percent year over year.  This is significantly less than earlier expectations of a 4+ percent year-over-year decrease.  In fact, fed beef production was up 2.2 percent due to larger than expected steer and heifer slaughter and a sharp increase in carcass weights in 2024.  Steer slaughter was up 0.2 percent year over year, while heifer slaughter was down 1.1 compared to the previous year.  Average steer carcass weights jumped 22 pounds year over year with heifer carcasses averaging 18 pounds heavier.  Although fed beef production was higher year over year, Choice boxed beef prices averaged 2.8 percent higher year over year on strong prices for end meats from the chuck and round.

 

Without a doubt, the biggest change in 2024 was in nonfed beef production, down 13.2 percent year over year due to sharp reductions in cow slaughter.  Beef cow slaughter was down 19.0 percent year over year and dairy cow slaughter was down 12.2 percent from the previous year.  Reduced supplies of processing beef led to record wholesale trimmings prices, increased demand for imported beef, strong lean demand for end meats, and record cull cow prices.

 

All of the above suggests that cattle inventories continued to decline in 2024.  USDA-NASS will confirm cattle inventories going into 2025 with the scheduled release of the annual Cattle report on January 31.  Much of 2024 was occupied with producers looking for indications of heifer retention that would lead to eventual herd rebuilding.  With no indications of heifer retention at the end of 2024, the new year starts with the same question.   

 

Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist, explains how livestock markets moved throughout 2024 on SunUpTV from December 28, 2024. 

Five New Year’s Resolutions for 2025

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist

 

Low cow inventories, little evidence of replacement heifer retention and record high prices for cattle during the close of 2024 are all positive signs for commercial cow-calf operations in 2025. 

 

That being the case, here are my New Year’s resolutions for commercial cow-calf operations to unlock greater profit potential in the coming year:

  1. Evaluate your marketing plan and resolve to market better. Consider when (weaning, yearlings or as fed cattle) and how. Investigate marketing opportunities that can add value through documented health and/or genetic values.
  2. Keep better records, both financial and production. Evaluating cow productivity in the form of Percent Calf Crop Weaned or the Percentage of Mature Weight Weaned on a herd-wide basis are vital to unlock profit potential.
  3. Find the optimum balance of Mature Cow Weight/Cow Productivity to your available pastureland and forage/feed resources. Selection pressure applied to keep mature cow size in balance can be effective as this is a highly heritable trait. 
  4. Monitor nutrition and cow body condition – don’t let cows lose weight during the last trimester of pregnancy.    
  5. Improve the health of your entire grazing ecosystem (soil, plants and cattle). Most Oklahoma rangeland has been drought stressed during two of the past three years. Manage warm season grasses accordingly this spring. 

Mark Johnson, OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist, looks ahead to 2025 and has advice for producers when it comes to starting off the year on a good note on SunUpTV from December 28, 2024.

Highlights from the 2024 Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter

Paul Beck, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Nutritionist

 

It has been a great year for the Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter! We shared Beef Cattle Marketing and Management in 53 newsletters and 171 individual articles.

 

The topics covered in the 53 Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter releases included:

  1. livestock marketing (59 articles) – discussing the impacts of the increased numbers of heifers in feedlots on herd expansion, the changes in cow markets and culling rates, import and exports in the beef markets, among many other topics.
  2. Cow calf production and management (58 articles) – describing proper calving and breeding season management, veterinary management and parasitology, bull selection, heifer retention, and nutrition.
  3. Stocker cattle production and management (25 articles) - including forage management, wheat pasture conditions, wheat pasture bloat, summer supplementation, and the impacts of pre-finishing management on feeder cattle production.
  4. Other topics such as Emergency management, Extension Programming, and Beef Quality Assurance. 

There were 15 authors contributing to the Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter.

 

Of course, Derrell Peel shared his analysis on the livestock markets every week, but he also gave insights into an international study abroad class he took to Scottland and Ireland in 4 articles.

 

Mark Johnson had his weekly cow-calf corner tie in with the Sun Up television program covering timely topics in cow-calf management along with articles on beef quality, advocacy for beef, and Beef Quality Assurance.

 

Other regular contributors include Area Livestock Extension Specialists: Dana Zook, Brian Freking, Scott Clawson, Mike Trammell, and Britt Hicks; State Livestock Extension Specialists: Rosslyn Biggs, Paul Beck, Eric DeVuyst, Kellie Curry Raper, Barry Whitworth, Courtney Bir and David Lalman; and Graduate Students: Jacee DeVries, Chris Johnson, and Paul Vining.

 

This year we started on January 1 with 1,661 subscribers. Our edition on December 23 was sent out to 2,532 subscribers (with 2,547 on the list for this week). Thanks to everyone that has shared our newsletter and suggested it to your friends and colleagues to drive this 52% increase in our subscribers this year!

 

Thank you as well for all your support and here’s to another successful year in 2025!

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