Cattle Markets Now and Later

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

 

Cattle producers are taking advantage of the much stronger cattle prices this fall.  In numerous meetings this fall, producers have indicated to me that they are selling the majority of steers and heifers; in part to capitalize on higher prices, and in some cases, because of continuing drought and pasture and hay limitations which are making additional sales necessary.  Reported national feeder cattle volumes (auction, direct and video/internet) are up 5.6 percent year over year since Labor Day, with the majority in September (contributing to the large September feedlot placements).  The total volume in October was up 2.4 percent but was down year over year at the end of October and beginning of November.  In Oklahoma, feeder cattle auction volumes have been down 13.7 percent year over year this fall. However, there are indications of another month of large placements in the next Cattle on Feed report.

 

Bigger feeder cattle (600 pounds and higher) prices have fallen about 9-10 percent since September, mostly under the weight of the huge market correction in Feeder and Live cattle futures. Despite the recent decrease, prices for these heavier feeder animals are still 33-35 percent higher compared to the same time last year. 

 

Stocker calf prices in Oklahoma have continued to show strength this fall (Figure 1), helped, no doubt, by recent rains and improved wheat pasture prospects.  Producers looking to graze wheat are expecting to have wheat pasture, albeit later than usual in many cases.  The latest crop progress report pegs Oklahoma wheat planting and emergence just slightly behind the average pace and rates the crop at 49 percent good to excellent. Stocker steer prices in Oklahoma are averaging 45-50 percent higher year over year. 

 

 

Figure 1. Stocker Steer Price, Fall 2023

 

Strong feeder prices can also impact live cattle imports. Mexican feeder cattle imports, which were at the lowest level since 2008 last year are up sharply in 2023.  The January – September total Mexican cattle imports were up 45.9 percent year over year.   However, the current year to date total is down 3.6 percent from the 2017-2021 average for the first nine months of the year.  Imports of Canadian feeder cattle are down 24.6 percent for the year to date from last year and are down 35.7 percent from the 2017-2021 average level.

 

Nationally, beef cow slaughter is down 12.6 percent year over year for the year to date.  However, the decrease has been smaller, down just 8.4 percent year over year in the last 8 weeks.  The current pace of beef cow slaughter suggests a 2023 herd culling rate of 12 percent, above the long-term average rate of about 10 percent and indicates additional herd liquidation.

 

Taken together, the feeder marketings, feedlot placements and slaughter data all suggest that the industry continues to extract animals from the system in a manner that indicates continued liquidation.  Cattle numbers generally will continue to get tighter in 2024.  When heifer retention and herd rebuilding begin, cattle numbers will get significantly tighter very quickly.

 

Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist, explains why feedlot inventories are higher than last year on SunUpTV from October 28, 2023. 

 

 

Beef! It's What's for Thanksgiving!

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist

 

“Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner” is an American advertising slogan and marketing campaign aimed at promoting the consumption of beef. The ad campaign, originally launched in 1992, has been long-lived, highly effective and award winning. The slogan is said to be recognized by more than 88% of Americans, accordingly, I borrowed from this well-known phrase for my title. 

 

Thanksgiving is a time when American families come together to celebrate a holiday that connects each and every one of us. The holiday was first celebrated in 1621 when the Plymouth settlers, joined with the Wampanoag Indians to enjoy a fall feast to celebrate a bountiful harvest.  The tradition of Thanksgiving became official when President George Washington declared the nation would celebrate the day on November 26, 1789. President Abraham Lincoln wrote a proclamation declaring all states would celebrate the day in 1863. President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed a resolution from Congress in 1941 that established the official date of Thanksgiving to be the fourth Thursday in November each year. While Thanksgiving is observed in varied ways in different nations, in American the holiday is truly rooted in agriculture. We may bring our own flavors and traditions to the table but Thanksgiving is a time for all of us to celebrate our nation’s harvest and ability to efficiently produce food, to express gratitude for our blessings, and look ahead to the future.  

      

Alexander Hamilton once proclaimed: “No citizen of the U.S. shall refrain from turkey on Thanksgiving Day.” With all due respect to Mr. Hamilton, a founding father and our first secretary of the treasury whose ideas are credited with laying the foundation for American government and finance, I encourage you to make plans to enjoy beef this year at Thanksgiving. Why? Because compared to turkey, or among all the protein sources you may be considering for Thanksgiving dinner, beef holds the advantage. With regard to flavor, beef is generally more interlaced with marbling, the taste fat that translates to a more flavorful and satisfying eating experience. Beef can be aged to further intensify flavor, not an option with poultry products. Beef offers more variety of cuts, all of which result in the same satisfying eating experience. Beef can be served in a variety of “degree of doneness” options relative to what is most satisfying to your palate. Likewise, beef offers more options in the amount of time spent in preparation to better fit your schedule. Turkey requires long-term baking/frying preparation resulting in the option of white meat or dark meat. Consuming beef on Thanksgiving Day has the further advantage of improving the supply and demand equation thereby improving the profit potential of beef production. Because of the variety of advantages offered by beef, please give consideration to the following when planning.

 

How much time do you have to spend cooking?

If your answer is not much, consider grilling or pan frying. Middle meats from the beef carcass like ribeye, strip loin, filet and sirloin steaks are very tender and can be cooked quickly at high temperatures on the grill or stove top to seal in the tenderness, juiciness and flavor. If you intend to grill or pan fry steaks remember to give them adequate time to thaw and reach room temperature before cooking. Burgers made from ground beef are also great when grilled or pan fried. Chicken fried steak using tenderized round steaks can be pan fried. 

 

If you have more time to spend in preparation, smoking or oven roasting can result in the same tender, succulent beef flavor. Roasts from the chuck or round can be seasoned and slow cooked to bring out “melt in your mouth” flavor. Beef brisket is ideal for smoking and slow cooking. An intact rib roast can also work great for smoking or slow cooking. 

 

What is your budget?

Typically steaks or middle meats will be the more expensive cuts to purchase. The cuts that require more cooking time (because they contain more connective tissue) can be purchased at a lower price per pound. Ground beef is also less expensive. Since beef is the preferred protein among most consumers, it will typically cost more per pound in comparison; nevertheless, the variety of options from a beef carcass leads to choices to fit any budget.  

 

More information about cooking methods, recipes and beef cuts. Regardless of the cut of beef you enjoy this Thanksgiving you will be eating a nutrient dense, delicious source of protein, B vitamins, iron and zinc that is a healthy diet choice. 

 

This year on Thanksgiving, I want to say thanks to America’s farmers, ranchers and everyone in production agriculture that make it possible. Whatever we eat on Thanksgiving Day, it is the ingenuity, perseverance, efficiency, work ethic and “can do” attitude of America’s cattle men and women, and ag producers that permit us to enjoy the highest quality beef produced in the world and spend a relatively small percentage of our income on food.  

 

Thanksgiving in 2023 arrives at a time when we, as cattle producers, have a great deal to be thankful for. Strong cattle prices and historically strong profit opportunities have made headlines in the past year. Overall, 2023 looks to be a very profitable year for all segments of the beef industry (cow-calf producers, stockers operations and cattle feeders), this is historically rare. Low cattle inventories indicate high value of cattle of all classes for the next several years. The market value of purebred seedstock should be robust in the future as the nation re-populates with cows.

 

Happy Thanksgiving, thanks for reading and remember “BEEF! IT’S WHAT’S FOR THANKSGIVING!”  

 

OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist Mark Johnson explains why switching out your turkeys for beef might be a good idea for Thanksgiving on SunUpTV from November 20, 2023.

 

 

Genomic Testing for Selecting Replacement Heifers

Chris Johnson and Jacee DeVries, OSU Department of Animal and Food Sciences

 

Most of our spring-born calves are in the weaning process. This is the time many producers are shipping feeder cattle to the market. Some producers are thinking about the next generation of their herd. Heifer retention is a big decision producers must make to ensure they maintain the breeding herd. This decision has traditionally been made based on a physical characteristic, who the dam is, or how much feed is available. With so many variables at play, it is hard to know how the heifer is going to perform or if she is going to wean a calf when she’s a two-year-old. With such a long window and investment to determine the heifer’s fate in the herd, producers should take advantage of genomic testing to get accurate information on maternal, performance, and carcass traits. 

 

Genomic testing is conducted on a small ear tissue or blood sample, this is compared to proven genetics and provides more predicted progeny data than an EPD. The best time to genomic test to make culling decisions is at birth when you are tagging the new-born, but it can occur at any time. Results from the genomic test can provide:

 

• Producers with data backed decision makers to improve the genetic potential of the herd.
• Produce efficient animals on pasture.
• Sell premium calves or bred heifers to generate more income.

 

Questions you may be asking yourself:

 

Which is better genomic testing or EPD’s?

Depending on the trait, a genomic test can replace 10 progeny for a sire with no other progeny. Relying on EPD’s only works if the bull generates progeny. Genomic testing uses the genes of that specific animal and compares them to other animals in a large database to provide predictions of calf’s genetics. Genomic labs are offering tests for commercial cattle selection, extending this valuable technology to more producers in the industry. 

 

Will this make me more money?

A genomic test can range from $15-$40, depending on how detailed you want the results. Genomically testing all of your heifers born can be an expensive investment but can pay dividends when you picking quality heifers that produce quality calves. Keeping a low performing heifer can cost you $2,304/hd (BCRC calculator) in Oklahoma compared to a high producing heifer. Using genomic testing can identify and select better performing heifers that will pay for themselves in 2-3 calf crops.

 

To start genomic results may not seem promising, but with careful bull selection herd genetics can be improved over time. Cost savings from selling low performing heifers and keeping the ones that will produce a nice calf will pay for the test. Remember, this is a one-time cost, so testing potential replacement heifers first will give you the information you need to make sound keep/cull decisions. Eventually it would be a good idea to test the whole herd and cull animals that don’t fit you operation goals.

 

To calculate the cost for you to retain your heifer(s) for breeding use the Beef Cattle Research Council calculator 

 

Dr. Dave Lalman, OSU Extension beef cattle specialist, has details on the ongoing feed efficiency study at OSU’s North Range, including the next phase of research that includes heifers on SunUpTV from November 1, 2023.