Cow-Calf Corner | March 20, 2023
Feedlot Inventories are Falling: How Far and How Long?
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report showed March 1 feedlot inventories at 11.645 million head, down 4.5 percent year over year and the lowest March inventory since 2017. Placements in February were down 7.2 percent year over year and the sixth consecutive monthly decrease in placements. In fact, placements were down 10 of the past 12 months. February marketings were down 4.9 percent from one year earlier.
Figure 1. shows monthly inventory totals (blue line) and a 12-month moving average (MA) of monthly feedlot inventories (green line) since 2011. While monthly feedlot totals vary seasonally, the moving average removes the normal seasonality so that changes month to month indicate the underlying trend in feedlot production. March 2023 was the sixth consecutive month of declining feedlot inventories year over year. With feedlot totals decreasing since October, the MA peaked in September 2022 at 11.8 million head, dropping to 11.63 million head as of this latest report, the lowest level since October 2020.
Figure 1. Cattle on Feed
Declining feedlot production leads immediately to two questions. How low will feedlot inventories go in the coming months? And when will the low happen? Figure 1 may provide some indications of what to expect. The previous multi-year low in the feedlot inventory MA was in October 2014, after drought-forced herd liquidation in 2011-2013. The current beef cow herd is slightly smaller that the 2014 herd level. The beef cow herd is likely to drop a bit more in 2023. It is reasonable to expect that average feedlot inventories will drop close to the 2014 low of 10.375 million head or possibly even lower at some point in the coming months.
The question of when that low will happen is trickier. Although there are expectations for diminishing drought conditions in 2023, the drought continues for now and it’s not clear whether liquidation will be pushed even further this year. The smallest calf crop of the next few years will be in 2024 at the earliest. Feedlot inventories will decline through 2023 with the low in 2024 or beyond. Figure 1 shows that the feedlot inventory MA decreased from August 2012 until October 2014 following the previous drought episode. This suggests that the coming feedlot low might not happen until late 2024 or later.
This leads to a third question of how long low feedlot inventories will persist. Figure 1 shows that, from the MA low in October 2014, average feedlot inventories increased very slowly until the fall of 2017 before increasing more rapidly through 2018 and 2019. Feedlot inventories remained relatively low for about three years. This was the period of herd rebuilding when heifer retention was at the highest levels, with replacement heifer inventories peaking in 2016 and 2017. Not until heifer retention slowed after 2017, were additional heifers available for feedlot placement. The number of heifers in feedlots on January 1 increased by 23 percent from 2017 to 2019.
It appears that the 2012-2017 period is a useful analog for the next few years regarding feedlot inventories. The current state of cattle inventories, especially the cow herd size, replacement heifer inventories and expected calf crops are generally analogous to the previous period beginning in late 2012. In fact, the current situation reflects a more severe depletion of female inventories compared to the 2012-2017 period. Based on the analog period, feedlot inventories will likely decline from the feedlot inventory MA peak in September 2022 to a level similar to the 2014 low in the coming months and remain relatively low for the next four years or longer.
Benefits of Estrus Synchronization and Artificial Insemination
Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist
Regardless of when your calving season occurs, manipulating the reproductive process of your cow herd can result in shorter breeding and calving seasons. Accordingly, more calves born earlier in the calving season result in an older, heavier, more uniform calf crop when you wean. Shortened calving seasons permit improvements in herd health and management such as timing of vaccinations and practices that add to calf value with less labor requirements (or at the very least concentrating labor efforts into a shorter time frame). Cows that are closer to the same stage of gestation can also be fed and grouped accordingly which facilitates a higher level of management.
Estrus synchronization can be used for natural mating or breeding by Artificial Insemination (AI). Synchronization protocols permit us to concentrate the labor needed for heat detection to a few days, and in some cases eliminate the need for heat detection when cows can be bred on a timed basis. Choosing an estrous synchronization protocol which can be used with AI or natural mating can be difficult as a number of synchronization methods are available. Traditional protocols are designed to mimic or control the corpus luteum on the ovary. Newer protocols have been designed to control ovulation and/or the follicular waves that occur on the ovary during the 21-day estrous cycle. Estrus synchronization systems vary in cost, labor required, and effectiveness. Management decisions regarding synchronization should be based on answers to the following questions:
- Do you have adequate labor and facilities to successfully implement the management practices involved? Most synchronization protocols will require at least two trips through the chute, plus at least one more if breeding by AI. Heat detection will require labor for several hours, twice a day to observe standing heats. Labor will be required to sort cows.
- Do you have an AI technician available for the duration of time you will be AI breeding cows?
- Cost of synchronization protocols can vary significantly. Is the cost justified? Whatever method you determine best fits your operation, be sure to use the correct synchronization product at the recommended time and follow Beef Quality Assurance practices when administering the product.
- Have you identified an AI sire(s) offering the genetic potential to increase your profit potential relative to your intended marketing endpoint or use of calves sired?
Use of AI permits us to get more cows bred to genetically superior sires for traits of economic importance to our operation’s production and marketing goals. Synchronization at the onset of breeding season, results in more cows having heats in the first 18 – 25 days of breeding season. Female’s return heats will remain synchronized to a degree, which gives a second chance to AI each female in the early part of breeding season. Without any synchronization, herd managers are faced with a 21 days of continual estrus detection and typically only one opportunity for AI in most females.
Bottomline: estrus synchronization can be an important management tool to get cows settled as early in the breeding season as possible and get cows bred to bulls with highest possible genetic value. A defined breeding season is important to permit meaningful record keeping, timely management and profit potential. Maintaining a 60-to-75-day breeding and calving season can be one of the most important management tools for cow calf producers.
BQA Low Stress Cattle Handling Principles
Bob LeValley, Oklahoma Beef Quality Assurance Coordinator
Cattle producers have long recognized and fulfilled the need to properly care for livestock. Sound care and handling practices, based on years of experience and research are known to impact the well-being of cattle, individual animal health and herd productivity. Cattle are raised in very diverse environments and geographic locations. One specific set of production practices will not work for all cattle producers, but, personal experience, Beef Quality Assurance program principles, and professional judgement serve as valuable resources for proper animal handling and care. Animal behavior knowledge will facilitate proper animal handling to the benefit of both the handler and the livestock.
Knowledge of vision characteristics of cattle will help direct movement. Due to the location of their eyes, cattle have a wide-angle field of vision in excess of 300 degrees. This means they have a narrow blind spot which is directly behind them. They can see some colors and can distinguish between individuals/objects based on shape. Cattle have a tendency to move from dark areas to lighter areas, provided the light is not glaring. Shadows can often appear extreme to cattle.
Handling issues related to vision-related behaviors include:
- Keep them in visual contact with other cattle.
- Try to ensure loading ramps and handling chutes are designed to minimize the animals seeing distractions outside of the working area. If cattle can see moving objects and people through the sides it may impede their movement forward.
- Check for chains, backstops, dogs, or people distractions if cattle are not moving readily through the alley or chute.
- It may help to make sure the area you are moving the cattle into is adequately lighted.
- Paint the handling facilities a single uniform color because cattle may balk at a sudden change in color.
Cattle have a wider range of hearing than most humans. However, they can locate the source of sound as well as human hearing allows. They are sensitive to high frequency sounds. With this in mind, we can expect that loud noises in working facilities should be avoided, but small amount of noise can assist in moving livestock. Noisy gates and other equipment can cause cattle to balk and resist moving forward.
Producers have long been aware that proper handling management based on their knowledge of animal behavior will reduce stress and behavior related issues. Improper handling that does not consider animal behavior may lower conception rates, reduce immune and rumen function, increase other health problems, cause excessive shrink, and bruising. Make sure to adequately instruct employees of your expectations for low stress cattle handling techniques.
For more information on the Beef Quality Assurance program, or to become a beef quality assurance certified producer, visit BQA.org or contact your county extension agriculture educator.
Rancher’s Thursday Lunchtime Series on Navigating Dry Conditions and High Prices Kicks Off this Week
Paul Beck and David Lalman, OSU State Beef Extension Specialists
A new Rancher’s Thursday Lunchtime Series kicks off this week. The series will focus on Navigating Dry Conditions and High Prices. Join our Beef Cattle Extension team, experienced ranchers and scientists to learn and share beef cattle production, management and marketing tips. These free Zoom webinar sessions are scheduled for Thursdays at noon from March 23 to April 13.
Topics include:
March 23, 2023 – Weather and Grass Forecast with Brian Fuchs of the National Drought Mitigation Center and Dr Laura Goodman from the OSU Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management.
March 30, 2023 – Using Warm-Season Annual Grasses to Restore Hay and Grazing Inventory with James Rogers from North Dakota State University and Paul Beck from OSU Department of Animal and Food Sciences.
April 6, 2023 – Selecting Cattle from Productivity and Longevity in Tough Conditions with James Henderson from the Bradley 3 Ranch and Mark Johnson from the OSU Department of Animal and Food Sciences.
April 13, 2023 – The Future of the Cattle Industry – A View from South Texas with Robert Hodge, President and CEO of King Ranch and David Lalman OSU Department of Animal and Food Sciences.
Rancher's Thursday Lunchtime Series Flyer