Keeping an Eye on Beef Demand

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

 

Retail all-fresh beef prices in March were $7.23/lb., unchanged from February and down 1.8 percent from one year ago.  Retail beef prices have been mostly steady since late 2021 (Figure 1).  The 12-month moving average of monthly retail beef prices has been above $7.25/lb. since April 2022 (blue line, Figure 1).  This indicates strong beef demand given record beef production in 2022 and the highest beef consumption per capita at 58.9 pounds (unchanged from 2021) since 2010.  Retail all-fresh beef prices averaged $7.30/lb. in 2022, the highest on record and up 5.1 percent over 2021 average retail prices. The highest monthly price ever was in October 2021 at $7.55/lb.  

 

It does not appear that consumer beef buying behavior has changed significantly thus far with higher retail beef prices.  There is little indication of consumers “trading down”…i.e. switching to lower value products and away from more expensive beef cuts.  Wholesale beef prices continue to be led by strong middle meat prices with tenderloins and ribeyes up 12-15 percent year over year.  Chucks and round wholesale values are mixed across a range of products but chuck primals are up 10 percent year over year and rounds are unchanged. Briskets remain weak compared to last year.  Both 90 and 50 percent lean beef trimmings have advanced significantly thus far in 2023, pushing ground beef prices higher.  Higher ground beef prices are probably partly due to stronger demand but are mostly due to decreasing supplies of processing beef.

                                                                                 

 

Figure 1. Retail Beef Price

 

Choice boxed beef price averaged $297.91/cwt. last week, the highest weekly boxed beef price since late September 2021 and up 9.3 percent year over year.   Boxed beef prices are pushing higher as a result of decreased beef production and supported by continued strong beef demand. 

 

Beef production is down 4.6 percent for the year-to-date compared to last year.  Decreased beef production is the result of declining cattle slaughter and lower carcass weights in 2023.  Total cattle slaughter is down 2.9 percent thus far in 2023.  Daily slaughter totals for the year-to-date show that steer slaughter is down 2.3 percent year over year, with heifer slaughter up 0.4 percent  year over year leading to total fed slaughter down 1.2 percent for the year thus far.  Total year-to-date cow slaughter is down 3.6 percent year over year with dairy cow slaughter up 4.6 percent year over year and beef cow slaughter down 10.3 percent year over year.  Bull slaughter is down 9.6 percent thus far in 2023.  Carcass weights for all classes of cattle are lower year over year with average cattle carcass weights down 15.2 pounds year over year.  Steer carcass weights have averaged 14.7 pounds lighter this year with heifers averaging 19.2 pounds lighter and cow carcass weights smaller by 11.6 pounds compared to one year ago.

 

 

Tough Environments Require Tough Cows

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist

 

Recently I had the opportunity to interview James Henderson of Bradley 3 Ranch on our Ranchers Lunchtime webinar series. The Bradley 3 Ranch is located in Memphis, TX and has a earned a reputation for producing high quality Angus and Charolais seedstock that are uniquely well-adapted to their environment.  The Bradley 3 Ranch is famous, innovative and award winning.  The title of my article this is borrowed from James Henderson’s topic last week. 

 

The tough environment the 600 head of registered cows at Bradley 3 Ranch is described by James as follows:

• Low rainfall (23 inch average per year, considerably less than average over the past 18 months)
• Bad water (high in nitrates and sulfates)
• Large acreage (16,000 acre ranch)
• Temperature extremes (-10 to 123 degrees F)
• Heavy brush
• Toxic weeds
• Predators

 

The tough cows were described as follows:

• Athletic and capable of covering a lot of ground to get to forage and water
• Will drink water that taste bad
• Will survive in extreme temperatures (hair shedders)
• Will protect a calf during birth and after
• Learns to avoid toxic plants
• Can maintain body condition in weather extremes
• Will cycle and breed in all conditions
• Will raise a calf to weaning every year
• Will adapt to the environment through natural selection
• Angus cows average mature weight of 1195, average weaning off 50% (or better) of their mature weight each year (600 lb. weaned calves)
• Charolais cows average mature weight of 1400, average weaning off 48-50% of their mature weight each year (670 – 700 lb. weaned calves)
• On a whole herd basis, Bradley 3 Ranch averages an 86% calf crop weaned as compared to a national average percent calf crop weaned of 78%. 

 

James Henderson encourages producers to do the math and manage their beef operation like a business.  Hold cows accountable.  Another interesting point he made was the donor cow selection criteria.  In order for a cow to make the cut for the Bradley 3 Ranch ET program she is a 10 year old who has ratioed 105 or better on each calf weaned, each year she has been in production.  Wow! A very high standard.

 

Bottom line: Your cowherd can achieve the benchmarks for performance that you establish and hold them accountable for.  If you will be growing your cow inventory in the future, take measures to insure your cowherd matches your production environment and intended marketing endpoint for the calves you will produce. 

 

The presentation from James Henderson from April 6th, as well as the entire Ranchers Lunchtime series webinars.

 

 

Mineral Balance for the Breeding Herd

David Lalman, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Specialist

 

Grazing cattle generally benefit from a mineral supplementation program. Simple, right? After all, a well-balanced, cost-effective program only requires knowledge of vitamin or vitamin precursor, and mineral supply from the forage base, vitamin and mineral element digestibility and availability, and the animals’ vitamin and mineral requirements for their current age, stage of production, and mineral status (abundant vs depleted stores). Top it off with cattle’s tendency to be finicky and unpredictable in mineral supplement consumption and you have a situation that one of my friends would refer to as “a conundrum causing great annoyance and displeasure”.

 

Chief among the sources of uncertainty is the dynamic nature of forage vitamin/mineral supply and the cows’ requirements; moving targets. Obviously, the mineral program does not need to produce precise balance each month, which is just about impossible to achieve anyway. Nevertheless, a simple mineral balance exercise or audit should be helpful to a) give you some confidence in your current program, or b) reveal an obvious need for a change. A mineral balance exercise involves developing a simple, consistent record keeping system to track forage mineral composition and your cow herds’ average or “normal” mineral consumption pattern during the same time of year. With this information, you can use a nutrition evaluation program to project deficiencies and/or excesses. You will need an idea of forage mineral concentration, an estimate of forage intake, a current estimate of average daily mineral supplement consumption, and the mineral product’s composition from the label. Most beef cattle nutrition evaluation programs provide an estimate of forage intake and an estimate of daily mineral requirements based on the animals’ weight and stage of production.

 

Table 1. Mineral balance for a lactating beef cow grazing spring tallgrass prairie forage.

 

As an example, Figure 1 shows the nutritive balance table for 1,200 pound lactating beef cows grazing lush spring tallgrass prairie forage and consuming 3.3 ounces per day of a commercial mineral supplement. You can quickly view the status indicators in the right column to determine where major gaps or excesses exist. In this example, these cows are projected to be about 7 grams per day short of sodium. Since salt contains 40% sodium, this suggests that these cows could use an additional 15 grams of salt or about 0.5 ounce per day. There are several excesses identified in this example. Most mineral balance exercises in the Southern Great Plains are going to reveal excessive potassium and excessive iron due to high forage concentration of both minerals. The other revelation in this balance exercise the the considerable excess of selenium.  Thus, the conclusion of this exercise is that a) this mineral supplement is a good complement to this forage source for this time of year and b) one could blend about 10 to 15% salt with the mineral to better match the sodium requirement with intake and c) the selenium concentration in the commercial product could be reduced by about 50% if that were an option. It most definitely points out that there is no need to purchase mineral product containing a greater concentration of selenium in this case.

 

Several commercial nutrition companies provide services to conduct these balance exercises and follow up by recommending or manufacturing mineral formulations customized to your operation’s needs.

 

In recent years, commercial livestock nutrition laboratories have incorporated mineral composition analytical services. For example, our lab at OSU charges $12 per sample to get macro and micro minerals. Depending on your level of concern or interest, one might get started by conducting a winter feeding and summer grazing balance. A more ambitious approach might be to collect “hand-plucked” samples from one or more pastures each month. The idea of the hand-plucking method is to select only plants and parts of plants that you believe to represent what your cattle are currently grazing.

 

Consider collecting forage mineral composition and mineral supplement consumption data several years in a row to get a clear view of your operations’ patterns over time. Using that valuable information, you can get a good idea of how well your current program or product matches your forage resource to meet your cow herd’s needs.

 

• Dave Lalman has advice for ensuring cattle are receiving the nutrients they need while they graze during the summer on SunUpTV from May 15, 2021.
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