Hay Supplies Tight; Record Hay Prices

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

 

The August Crop Production report released recently by USDA-NASS included forecasts for hay production in selected states and the U.S.  Total production of alfalfa hay in 2022 is forecast at 49.1 million tons, down 0.3 percent from 2021 levels and 13.6 percent below the ten-year average from 2011-2020. All other hay production for 2022 is forecast at 67.7 million tons, down 4.6 percent year over year and down 7.4 percent from the ten-year average.  Total 2022 U.S. hay production is forecast at 116.8 million tons, down 2.9 percent from one year ago and down 10.1 percent from the 2011-2020 average.  Alfalfa and other hay prices are forecast at record levels in 2022.  

 

Drought reduced hay production in 2021 with continued impacts in 2022.  May 1 hay stocks were down 6.9 percent year over year but were down 16.9 percent from the 2011-2020 average. The total hay supply for the 2022-2023 hay crop year (May-April) is the sum of May 1 (beginning) hay stocks and 2022 hay production.  The total hay supply is projected to be down 3.4 percent year over year and is down 11.0 percent from the ten-year average (Table 1).

 

Table 1. May 1 Hay Stocks, Hay Production and Total Hay Supply, Top Ten States and U.S., 2022.

*Rank based on 2017-2021 average of total hay production.

^Forecast; USDA-NASS, Crop Production, August 2022

 

Among six of the top ten hay states, either reduced May 1 stocks or reduced 2022 hay production or both are contributing to significant reductions in hay supplies (Table 1).  Low May 1 stocks reflects carryover drought impacts from 2021.  Reduced 2022 hay production is the result of drought and/or high input costs including fertilizer and fuel.  The effects are cumulative. 

 

For example, in Texas, which had relatively less drought 2021, May 1 stocks were up 33.3 percent year over year but a 28.7 percent decrease in hay production this year results in a 22.5 percent reduction in 2022 hay supply.  Nebraska is in a similar situation.  In contrast, South Dakota had severe drought in 2021 leading to a 50.5 percent decrease in May 1 2022 stocks.  South Dakota is seeing a 65.5 percent year over year increase in hay production in 2022. However, because of drought last year, total 2022 hay supply is up just 17.4 percent year over year compared to the 32-year low in 2021.  Montana, like South Dakota, is also seeing recovery in hay production in 2022 (from drought-reduced production last year), up 13.3 percent year over year.  However, severely reduced carryover from last year means that total Montana hay supplies are down 0.9 percent from last year and are at the lowest level since 1989. Oklahoma had both reduced May 1 stocks and reduced hay production in 2022 leading to a 17.2 percent reduction in 2022 hay supplies and the lowest hay supply since 2012.  In Missouri and Kentucky, where drought has not been a factor, reduced 2022 hay production is likely the result of high fertilizer prices and reduced input use. 

 

Eight of the top ten hay states are also top ten beef cow states including Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Montana and Kentucky.  These eight states had 15.7 million beef cows on January 1, 2022.  The other two, California and Idaho, are the number one and three dairy cow states, respectively.  With the growing season winding down amid continuing drought, the 2022 hay supply data illustrate why so much herd liquidation has occurred this year.  It also speaks to the continuing challenges that cattle producers will face to get through the winter before the 2023 growing season could provide the next opportunity for improved forage conditions.  

 

 

Early Weaning Calves

Paul Beck, Oklahoma State Extension Beef Nutrition Specialist

 

Pasture conditions are deteriorating and hay inventory is short, if you’re out of grass and about to start feeding hay it’s time to take drastic action to maintain your cowherd and prevent further injury to pastures. Many areas in the West and Southern Great Plains have seen high culling rates with cows going to town in droves. Once all the old, open, or non-productive cows are culled the next step for many producers is to wean calves early.

 

It is much harder to maintain or add condition on a cow that still has a calf on her side. A dry pregnant cow in the second trimester requires 37% less TDN and 13% less protein than when she is in late lactation with a calf. The dry pregnant cow not only requires less energy and protein, she also would eat 20% less than the lactating cow.

 

Research shows that calves can be weaned as early as 45-days of age, and these calves grown to similar or heavier weights by normal weaning time. Spring born calves in mid to late August are currently 3 to 5 months of age and likely weight 300 to 400 pounds. Even though they are much lighter than our normal calf weights at weaning, it is still relatively simple to feed these light weight calves grower diets in dry lot to maintain targeted sales weights by normal marketing time. Early weaned calves can be grown in dry lot very efficiently with feed-to-gain expected to be 4.5 to 5 pounds of feed per pound of gain. Because these calves are smaller and immature, they should be fed growing rations with targeted gains of 2 to 2.5 pounds per day, depending on frame size and growth potential. This size calf would be expected to eat about 3% of their bodyweight per day on a dry matter basis, but the lighter calves require 18% crude protein diets until they weigh over 400 pounds. Below is an example of a 18% crude protein that can fed to light weight growing calves, consult with your local Cooperative Extension Agent or feed company representative for locally available feedstuffs.

 

 

Dr Keith Lusby and Don Gill had the following observations and conclusions on early weaning of calves.

1. Early weaning is a predictable method of salvaging high reproduction rates during droughts and other emergencies
2. The early weaned calves are pretty tough and learn to eat palatable rations quickly.
3. Health problems when calves are weaned and kept on the ranch have been minimal.
4. Early weaned calves should be managed on the ranch or with only a short haul for a period after weaning.
5. Managing these calves in a commercial feedlot is risky and takes coordination among the owner, feedlot manager, consulting veterinarian, and consulting nutritionist. Mistakes here can have long term and often fatal consequences.
    

Dr. Mark Johnson described the benefits of early weaning in a Cow-Calf Corner article from July 18, 2022 and see his discussion of these benefits on SunUp TV’s Cow-Calf Corner