Cattle Cycle Update and the Mexican Border

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

Cattle Cycle Update

The July Cattle report pegged the total U.S. cattle inventory as essentially unchanged from last year, up a scant 0.2 percent (Table 1).  The beef cow herd was down 0.7 percent, indicating that the herd inventory has not yet stabilized.  However, the beef replacement heifer inventory was up 2.7 percent, following the slight increase in the January 1 estimate.  The January and July estimates of beef heifer inventories suggest a very slow process of heifer retention.

The 2026 calf crop is estimated at 32.5 million head, down 1.5 percent from 2025.  The estimated feeder supply calculated from the July report is down 0.6 percent from last year.  The smaller 2026 calf crop means that feeder supplies will continue to decrease through 2027; even more if heifer retention accelerates.

Cattle, NASS, 2026

Cattle on Feed

Also released last Friday was the July monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report.  Placements in June were down 2.9 percent year over year and marketings were down 2.7 percent from last year.  The July 1 on-feed total was 11.37 million head, up 2.2 percent year over year.  The COF inventory has been higher year over year since March.  This increase is due to the fact that feedlot marketings have decreased 8.4 percent over the last six months while placements have only decreased by 2.9 percent.  Slow feedlot turnover is contributing to increased days on feed; increased carcass weights and increased yield grade 4/5 percentage.  On average for the past 12 months, 28 percent of fed cattle have been yield grade 4/5, a new record high level.

Mexican Border Reopening

Last week USDA announced that a phased reopening of the Mexican border for livestock imports would begin on August 24.  The initial opening will only include the Douglas, Arizona port.  If all goes well, the New Mexico ports of Columbus and Santa Teresa may open some weeks later, but no date has been announced.

The emotional response to the border reopening is difficult to anticipate, but the market impact of the USDA announcement should be minimal, other than, perhaps, an initial futures response.  The flow of Mexican cattle will be very small for many weeks with a relatively small number of cattle likely to be imported in the remainder of the year.  It is uncertain if a return to historic levels of Mexican cattle imports will happen, but if it does, it will likely take many months.

A Quick Story About Carcass Weight and Mature Cow Size

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist

This week we sent two home raised calves to the butcher. Both calves weighed close to 1,500 pounds live. Today I received the hot carcass weights on both calves, a solid black calf at 935 and a black-nosed smoke at 951 pounds. I looked at my calving book from the spring of 2025 and reviewed mature cow weight records taken at pregnancy check in the fall of 2024. The results are interesting. Since many Cow-Calf Corner articles have covered this topic (The Tug-of-War between Mature Cow Size, Carcass Weights and Cow Efficiency/Environmental Fit/Profitability) over the past couple of years, I thought it appropriate to share the data on the two calves, their sire and their dams.

The Butcher Calves

Both calves were born during the last week of March, 2025. They were vaccinated twice before weaning. When receiving their second round of vaccinations, the calves were castrated, given a Zeranol growth implant and dewormed. Calves were weaned in early August and spent several months grazing Bermudagrass which had been overseeded with sorghum-Sudan grass. In February, 2026 calves started on feed receiving a 14% Crude Protein growing ration at a rate of 15 – 20  pounds of feed “as is” per day. In mid-March calves were transitioned to a finishing ration. The finishing ration was 2 parts of the 14% growing ration to 1 part cracked corn. Over the final 120 days of feeding ad lib the calves average consumption of the finishing ration “as is” was 35 pounds per day. The calves were harvested on July 21, 2026 at just under 16 months of age.

The Sire

Both calves were sired by an Angus bull with a Weaning Weight EPD in the top 20%, a Yearling Weight EPD in the top 15%, a Residual Average Daily Gain EPD in the top 3% and a Dry Matter Intake EPD in the top 40% of current Angus Sires.

The Cows

The black calf was produced by a black commercial cow with a mature weight of 1180 pounds. The black-nosed smoke calf was produced by a black-nosed smoke commercial cow with a mature weight of 1280 pounds. Both cows are approximately 8 years old, of unknown genetic background and were purchased as bred cows in March, 2022. Both have bred back promptly and calved on-time each year since.

Points of Interest

The carcass weights (935 and 951) are a little under the current industry average of 963 on steer carcasses. The steers were on feed for 170 days, well under the current industry average. Neither of the cows (1180 and 1280) would be considered very large. The articles referenced below detail the consequences of mature cow size and why fed cattle are being taken to heavier weights than ever before, (particularly Dr. Beck’s article from the April 13, 2026 edition of this newsletter).

References:

• The Cowboy Math of Mature Cow Size and Calf Revenue Generated. Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist. June 17, 2024 Edition of the Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter.
• Tug-of-War in the Cattle Industry: Balancing Cow Size, Carcass Weights, and Total System Efficiency. Paul Beck, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Nutrition Specialist. April 13, 2026 Edition of the Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter.
• Extended Days on Feed Increasing Carcass Weight, Carcass Quality, and Fat. Paul Beck, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Nutrition Specialist. May 18, 2026 Edition of the Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter.
• Bull Selection, Growth, Feed Efficiency, and Carcass Outcomes. Paul Beck, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Nutrition Specialist. May 25, 2026 Edition of the Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter.
• 2026 Beef Improvement Federation Meetings – Take Home Points. Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist. June 22, 2026 Edition of the Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter.

Rate and Delivery of Supplements for Grazing Calves

Paul Beck, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Nutrition Specialist

Last week we discussed the changes in forage quality for grazing stocker calves and selecting the right supplement to match the calf’s needs and pasture deficiencies (When Summer Grass Starts Running Out of Gas, Cow Calf Corner July 20, 2026). After selecting the right type of supplement, the next decisions are how to deliver it and how much to feed. Supplement rate should be based on the production goal, forage conditions and expected response, not simply on the amount printed on a feed tag.

Feeding 1 or 2 pounds/day of high-protein supplements can be very effective for calves grazing late-summer pastures when adequate forage is still available. Across OSU summer-grazing studies, low-rate supplementation commonly increased average daily gain by about 0.5 to 0.8 pound per day. The average response was approximately 0.56 pound per day, requiring about 2 to 3 pounds of supplement for each additional pound of gain.

Increasing supplement rate can produce additional gain, but efficiency usually declines. In OSU research conducted on western Oklahoma rangeland, feeding 2 pounds per day of dried distiller’s grains (DDG) cubes increased gain by 0.6 pound per day compared with unsupplemented steers. Feeding 4 pounds increased gain by 0.8 pound per day, only 0.2 pound more than the 2-pound rate. Feeding 6 pounds increased gain by 0.95 pound per day, only 0.15 pound more than the 4-pound rate. Thus, each additional pound of supplement produced a smaller increase in gain. At higher feeding rates, part of the added supplement replaces forage rather than adding to total intake. This substitution effect can be useful when the objective is to increase stocking rate in a normal year or maintain cattle numbers when forage is limited, but it changes the economics.

Delivery method also matters. Hand-fed cubes generally provide more uniform intake and make it easier to control the dose of minerals and feed additives. Self-fed tubs can reduce labor and delivery costs, but their higher purchase price must be balanced against those savings. In a recent OSU comparison, cattle fed extruded distiller’s grains in self-fed tubs provided once per week or as cubes fed 3-times per week had similar gain and supplement intake. However, the tub cost substantially more per pound of feed. Self-feeding became competitive only when savings in travel and labor offset the greater feed cost.

Supplementation is a powerful tool but must be tailored to meet specific objectives. The response to supplementation depends on forage availability and quality. Producers must decide whether the objective is correcting a protein deficiency, increasing individual gain, stretching forage, increasing carrying capacity, or delivering a feed additive. The most profitable rate is not always the highest rate—it is the rate that produces the desired response at an acceptable cost.

We discuss the changes in forage quality during the late summer and selecting the right program to support your herd and management goals on SunUpTV from July 18, 2026. 

OSU Extension beef cattle specialist Paul Beck discusses heat stress in cattle on SunUpTV. Cattle and Heat Stress